xDSL The Final Installment

Kind Readers,

It seems that with the passing of Newtech into history, this subject will also become off-topic. There are a few exciting things I can end this discussion with that promise advances by the end of this year.

There are pluses and minuses. The telcos are turning away potential customers for fear of crosstalk with existing T1.

Three large backbone providers are now in multi-billion dollar expansions. I had mentioned Qwest and Williams Communications. Now add Level 3 Communications to the fray as they come out from a three year non-compete agreement with WorldCom after selling their backbone to them. It is privately held by a family in Oklahoma whose holding company is infusing two and one-half billion into the laying of thousands of miles of fiber optic trunks. That will be Qwest, about 16,000 miles by the end of the year; Williams, about 18,000 to 19,000 miles in the same time frame; and Level 3, about 18,000 miles in a bit longer of a time frame, they got a late start. These will be the "pipes" for xDSL to be viable. All that bandwidth has to be carried somewhere.

Next, the DMT chips are sampling in third generation at this time. There was the problem of the fact that they consumed 5 to 10 watts for each set and the telcos were limited by law to 600 watts per rack, which meant that limited the equipment and caused space problems. The chips in sampling are now in the one and one-half watt range. Suddenly, we are talking 400 modems to a rack instead of 60. This is also what is so compelling about the Consumer DSL (CDSL, DSL Lite, etc.) in that the reduction in speed down to the 768K range 'chops' the crosstalk mostly out of the picture and cuts the power consumption to a third. Now we are talking 1200 modems per rack. Now there is something a telco could love.

And, the final bit of news. The 'big boys' are in the game now. Working on "plug and play" DSL are Microsoft, Intel, Paradyne, Compaq, GTE, Lucent, NetSpeed, Alcatel, Hayes, Orckit and various telcos. Paradyne has its Multiple Virtual Line (MVL) modems coming out. Microsoft is doing the drivers for Win98. Intel is enabling the USB ports for direct plug attachment, just as the communications hardware companies are making the necessary changes to allow direct plug into regular phone jacks. Lucent has the WildWire chip that goes up to ADSL and down to 56K.. Compaq intends for the USB ports on its computers to be ready to plug the modem in.

Look for the rollout of products in the second and third generation this spring and the whole thing should "snowball" as the year progresses. It sounds very optimistic and it is for the near future. Do take into account that for the time being, all the trials going on still only encompass about a fifteen thousand person audience. Things should get "rolling" toward the end of the year with 1999 being the year of xDSL. The technologies to supply the necessary line encoding have been around a while. CAP, DMT, Frame Relay and Asynchronous Transfer Mode (ATM) have all been around a while and now they have a compelling use.

As all things come together, the software, the enabled USB ports (I told you about this over six months ago), the lower power chip and the fiber optic 'pipes' to carry it all; there is only one area that is a "stumbling block." Watch the router manufacturers to be the final hurdle to the system as those people bury OC-48 and OC-192 fiber optic cables that need higher speed switching routers to utilize the capacity.

Well, that is it. Hope you have thoroughly enjoyed this thread. It is now getting quite a bit of news coverage in the mainstream press. Remember what I told you about the thoroughly 'wrong-headed' thoughts of some of the less than technically savvy reporters. As a point of example, as I caught up on my reading today, I saw one such reporter said that T1 could not carry voice traffic, when in fact it can be split down into 24 to 48 voice lines. Another publication even had an article about various vendor equipment to do just this. Now, understand, these are both computer publications. And, T1 used to come in over 24 phone lines and did not start changing until a decade ago.

You have my various posts over the past eleven months in the Archives if you want to be a xDSL guru. Amaze friends and family by actually knowing what you are talking about. And, the two best URLs for more info are:

Telechoice

ADSL.com

And, as Always,
Peace,
Clarke